2015年1月20日，中东研究所刘中民教授在Global Times（《环球时报》英文版）发表评论文章“Iran Negotiations on Promising Route, But Don’t Hold Hopes too High”（见Global Times 2015年1月20日第16版），全文如下：
Iran Negotiations on Promising Route, But Don’t Hold Hopes too High
After several rounds of negotiations, the finalagreement on Tehran's controversial nuclear program, which was supposed to bereached in November 2014, has been postponed for another eight months. Talkscarry on, and the international community still expects a positive outcome.
US Secretary of State John Kerry met with his Iraniancounterpart Mohammad Javad Zarif twice last week, and staff-level talks haveresumed under a March 1 deadline. US President Barack Obama threatened to vetoany congressional decisions to lay more sanctions on Iran during the talks at apress conference on Friday, an attempt to make sure the negotiation goessmoothly.
It's hard to anticipate whether Iran and the six worldpowers will come to terms eventually, but we can be certain that Iran's nuclearissues won't be resolved for good by one simple agreement. However, at leastall parties have agreed on a diplomatic solution.
The odds of reaching a final agreement are stillfavorable because since the talks resumed in July 2013, the positive politicalenvironment has not receded, and there have even been new favorable factors.
Obama is eager to put the nuclear agreement on hislist of diplomatic legacies, and the landmark rapprochement with Cuba hasalready sent a signal to the international community that the Obamaadministration is shifting its foreign policy to a more conciliatory approach.
In the meantime, Tehran is keen to escape the pressurecaused by persistent economic sanctions.
What's more, given the fact that the threat of theIslamic State continues to haunt the region, and Iran is potentially able tocounter its rise, Washington doesn't want the nuclear negotiations to end upproving futile.
Although divergences still exist, the current phase ofnegotiations has seen Iran and the six powers retaining enough patience andnarrowing down disagreements, especially over technical details.
But it must be noted that even though bargains can beconcluded in many terms, the West will not easily let down their wariness ofIran's capabilities as a near-nuclear state. They, especially Washington, willremain skeptical about Iran's stated intent of taking advantage of nucleartechnology for peaceful purposes. More than three decades of enmity between theUS and Iran make it difficult to turn a short period of détente into along-lasting cordial relationship in the short term.
Both Obama and his Iranian counterpart Hassan Rouhanialso face restraints from conservative political forces at home andinterventions by outside forces like Saudi Arabia and Israel.
And the agreement, even if realized, will probablyneed more efforts to be put into practice. The vulnerable agreement could fallvictim to the political infighting within both the US and Iran. Any troublecould lead years of efforts to a bitter end.
Thus, the international community should hold a warilyoptimistic attitude toward the nuclear negotiations. Raising expectations toohigh will only end up with disappointment as the thaw in US-Iran antagonism hasjust begun.
来源：Global Times
