2025年6月13日，上外中东研究所刘中民教授就以色列袭击伊朗接受Global Times采访（见Global Times 2025年6月14日第1-2版），全文如下：
Iran-Israel tensions escalate after Israel hits nuclear sites, military leadership
The Middle East has once again become the focus of global attention, after Israel launched unprecedented strikes on Iran, and Tehran vowed to retaliate. In the face of the danger of escalating tensions, various parties, including Egypt, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Qatar on Friday strongly condemned Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets earlier in the day, while world leaders urged restraint in Iran-Israel escalation.
Analysts said the military strike on Tehran, unlike the previous two conflicts between Israel and Iran, is far more serious in nature and larger in scale, significantly increasing the risk of renewed escalation or even a full-scale war.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said on Friday that Israel has launched a preemptive strike on various places across Iran. Explosions were reported in Tehran and the counties of Natanz, Khondab and Khorramabad, Iranian state TV reported. Iran's Fars News Agency said 78 people were killed and 329 were injured in the attacks on residential neighborhoods in the capital Tehran.
The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) confirmed in a statement that its jets have completed the first-stage attack, notably strikes on dozens of military targets, including nuclear targets in different areas of Iran. The Israeli army confirmed that 200 fighter jets dropped more than 330 various munitions and struck more than 100 targets across the country, media reported.
Multiple senior military commanders, including Chief Commander of Iran's Islamic Revolution Guards Corps Hossein Salami, Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces Mohammad Bagheri and Commander of Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters Gholam Ali Rashid, were assassinated as a result of the airstrikes, state media reported, according to Xinhua.
The Israeli airstrikes also killed at least six nuclear scientists, Iran's Tasnim news agency said.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a video address that the goal of the ongoing operation is to strike Iran's nuclear infrastructure, ballistic missile factories, and its military capabilities, and will continue for as many days as it takes, according to multiple media reports.
The Atomic Energy Organization of Iran said Friday that the Israeli attacks damaged the Natanz nuclear facility in the center of the country. In a statement shared by Iranian media, the organization said it was assessing the extent of the damage but added that there have been no reports of casualties or radioactive or chemical contamination at the site, according to the Washington Post.
Israel's primary objective is to dismantle Iran's nuclear capabilities, thereby preserving its nuclear monopoly in the Middle East and neutralizing Iran's perceived security deterrence against Israel, said Liu Zhongmin, a professor at the Middle East Studies Institute of Shanghai International Studies University, in an interview with the Global Times.
Both Israel and Iran closed their airspace following the attack. Israel has declared a nationwide state of emergency.
Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said on Friday that Israel will receive harsh punishment following its airstrikes on Iranian targets earlier in the day.
Iran's Foreign Ministry said on Friday that Tehran has a legal and legitimate right to respond to Israeli attacks under the UN Charter. It said in a statement that as the main supporter of Israel, the US will also be responsible for the dangerous effects and consequences of Israel's attacks, Al Jazeera reported.
According to several Iranian news outlets, Abolfazl Shekarchi, the spokesperson for Iran's armed forces, has said that Israel will pay a heavy price for its attacks.
IDF spokesperson Brig Gen Effie Defrin said on Friday that after Israel's attack, Iran has launched approximately 100 UAVs towards Israeli territory, which he says they are working to intercept, per the BBC.
Iran possesses medium- and long-range missile capabilities, including ballistic missiles, and may still be able to deploy limited resistance forces to exert some restraint on Israel across other fronts, Zhu Yongbiao, a Middle East affairs expert and director of the Center for Afghanistan Studies at Lanzhou University, told the Global Times.
Given what Iranian Foreign Minister called Israel's strikes tantamount to a declaration of war, escalation is highly likely, said Zhu, Regardless of whether Iran responds with equivalent retaliation, Israel is likely to intensify its attacks on Iran. Therefore, under the current circumstances, the continuation and escalation of the conflict depend more on Israel's actions than on Iran's.
Israel has temporarily closed all of its diplomatic missions worldwide as its military operation in Iran continues, Israel's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement on Friday. The statement also warned Israelis abroad to avoid displaying national symbols in public, refrain from posting identifiable information or travel plans on social media, and avoid attending large-scale events linked to Israel, Xinhua reported.
Call for de-escalation
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said on Friday that China is closely following Israel's attacks on Iran and is deeply concerned about the potential grave consequences of the operations.
China opposes actions that violate Iran's sovereignty, security and territorial integrity, and opposes moves that escalate tensions and enlarge conflicts. The abrupt heating up of the region serves no one's interests, Lin said.
China calls on relevant parties to choose the course of action that is conducive to the region's peace and stability, and avoid further escalation of the tensions. China stands ready to play a constructive role in helping ease the situation, Lin added.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres condemned any military escalation in the Middle East, said Farhan Haq, his deputy spokesperson, in a statement on Israel's strikes against Iran, according to a Xinhua report. Noting that UN member states are obligated to act in accordance with the UN Charter and international law, the secretary-general urged both sides to show maximum restraint and avoid descent into deeper conflict - a situation that the region can hardly afford, the statement added.
The UN Security Council will meet later on Friday local time over Israel's strikes on Iran at the request of Tehran, unnamed diplomats quoted by Reuters news agency say.
Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Friday that Russia is concerned about the developments and condemns this sharp escalation, according to a Tass report.
French President Emmanuel Macron has called on all parties to exercise the utmost restraint and de-escalate in order not to jeopardize the stability of the entire region in a post on X.
A majority of Middle Eastern countries, including Egypt, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Jordan have expressed concern and condemned Israel's attack on Iran.
Oman, which has been mediating nuclear talks between the US and Iran over recent months, decried Israel's attacks as a dangerous and reckless escalation that violates the principles of international law.
In a statement, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio denied any US assistance or involvement in the unilateral attack, adding that Israel had informed Washington that it believed the strikes were necessary for its self-defense, the Xinhua News Agency reported.
While the White House sought to put distance between the US and any role in the Israeli attack, Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson expressed firm support for Israel. Israel IS right—and has a right—to defend itself! Johnson wrote in an X post featuring the Israeli flag.
According to CNN, images released by the Israeli military on Friday showed American-made F-35, F-15 and F-16 fighter jets were involved in the airstrikes on Iran.
Earlier on Thursday, US President Donald Trump warned of a possible massive conflict in the Middle East, saying that I don't want them going in as direct talks between the US and Iran are ongoing.
Zhu said that the US was very likely maintaining high-level strategic communication with Israel before the strikes, and whether intentionally or not, US' recent nuclear talks with Iran have provided cover for Israel's attack operations to some extent.
He added that the US' ambiguous stance on this issue effectively serves as both a stimulus and a form of favoritism and support for Israel.
The US has held five rounds of talks with Iran since April 12, Al Jazeera reported on June 2.
According to AFP, Trump has warned Netanyahu to hold off striking Iran, saying it would be inappropriate amid talks on a nuclear deal. However, talks entered a deadlock after Iran rejected the US proposal of zero uranium enrichment.
Liu said the negotiation deadlock was related to the pressure that Israel has exerted on Washington, to some extent. Interfering in the nuclear talks between the US and Iran, obstructing the US' strategic withdrawal from the Middle East, and perpetuating the confrontation between the US and Iran are key objectives of Israel's attacks as well.
After the strikes, Trump warned Iran in a Truth Social post to agree to a nuclear deal before there is nothing left, suggesting that subsequent Israeli attacks on the country will be even more brutal, CNN reported.
Trump told CNN that the US supports Israel and called the strikes on Iran last night a very successful attack. And Netanyahu is set to speak to Trump, according to an Israeli official.
The audacious military strike against Iran, unlike the previous two conflicts between Israel and Iran, is far more serious in nature and larger in scale, significantly increasing the risk of renewed escalation or even a full-scale war, Liu said.
It is a product of Israel's increasingly aggressive strategy and a reflection of the US' significantly diminished ability to manage the Middle East situation, the expert stressed.
来源：Global Times
（本文观点仅为作者或被访者个人观点，不代表本研究机构立场）
