2025年6月20日，上外中东研究所刘中民教授就伊朗与欧洲举行对话接受Global Times采访（见Global Times 2025年6月21日第1-2版），全文如下：
Iran holds talks with Europe as US weighs direct military involvement
The military conflict between Israel and Iran entered a second week on Friday, with casualties and injuries continuing to grow. Amid the international calls for de-escalation, a meeting between Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and his counterparts from UK, France and Germany (E3) was held in Geneva on Friday, after the White House said that US President Donald Trump will decide within two weeks whether the US military will become directly involved in the conflict.
The meeting is the first high-level one since Israel attacked Iran a week ago. European diplomats confirmed the planned talks, which involves French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot, British Foreign Secretary David Lammy, German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul, and EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, Al Jazeera reported.
Prior to the meeting, an official from the E3 told Politico that the aim of resuming talks with Iran is to get a guarantee that Tehran will only use its nuclear program for civilian purposes. That is exactly where we were with the negotiations … which have been thrown off track because of Israeli activity, the official said, per the Politico report.
However, the official predicted that talks on Friday were unlikely to come to a definitive conclusion.
Similarly, Foad Izadi, professor of international relations at the University of Tehran, told Al Jazeera that there will be will no give and take in the discussions, as the Iranian foreign minister is in Geneva for talks, rather than negotiations, due to the continuing Israeli strikes.
Since the onset of the Iran nuclear crisis in 2003, Europe has been an important stakeholder in nuclear negotiations, and it's Europe that has engaged with Iran multiples times after the US withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), said Liu Zhongmin, a professor from the Middle East Studies Institute of Shanghai International Studies University.
Despite efforts to resolve the conflicts through negotiations, the ongoing mutual strikes create an unfavorable atmosphere for meaningful talks on the Iran nuclear issue, Liu said.
This round of negotiations may primarily serve as an opportunity for Tehran to demonstrate to the international community that it does not possess nuclear weapons and also to highlight Israel's violation of international law and infringement on Iran's sovereignty, he noted.
Israel began attacking Iran last Friday, saying it aimed to prevent Teheran from developing nuclear weapons, Reuters reported. Iran retaliated with missile and drone strikes on Israel, and says its nuclear programme is peaceful.
Iran will continue to assert its right to peacefully utilize nuclear energy… After having engaged in over two decades of negotiations with the West and paying a heavy price for it, Iran is unlikely to agree to the US demand for completely dismantling its nuclear capabilities, Liu said.
The expert stated that Tehran is more likely seeking to return to the framework of the Iran nuclear deal reached in 2015 on the diplomatic front, namely the JCPOA, which safeguarded its right to peaceful nuclear energy while establishing a verifiable and transparent monitoring mechanism to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons.
Regarding the talks between Iran and the three European countries, UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric said Thursday that the message from Secretary-General António Guterres is clear: Stop the military action, too many people have been killed. Return to diplomacy, and avoid at any cost the further internationalization of this conflict, per an AP report.
During phone talks with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on Thursday, Chinese President Xi Jinping put forward a four-point proposal that ceasefire must be an urgent priority in the Middle East, ensuring civilian safety must be a top priority, dialogue and negotiation are the fundamental solutions, and the international community's peacemaking efforts are indispensable, Xinhua reported.
Before the meeting between E3 and Iran, the Israeli military claimed on Friday that more than 60 fighter jets took part in attacks on Tehran overnight, using approximately 120 munitions, according to Al Jazeera.
Israeli media has confirmed that an Iranian missile attack resulted in a direct hit in southern Beersheba, causing five injuries. Early Thursday, an Iranian missile slammed into the main hospital in southern Israel, leaving dozens of people injured, and drawing a swift vow from Israeli leaders of intensified attacks on Iran's military and government targets, CBS reported.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Friday that the only way to end the conflict is for Israel to stop its air attacks, and failure to do so would result in a far more forceful and regrettable response from Iran, Al Jazeera reported.
According to a statement made by UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Turk on Thursday, the latest official figures from Iran report 224 deaths, with many more injured. Israeli authorities have reported at least 24 deaths and over 840 injuries, Xinhua reported.
US' calculation
A day before the Iran-E3 talks, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Thursday local time that Trump will decide whether the US should get involved in the conflict within the next two weeks, according to NBC News.
Ahead of his trip to Geneva, UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy held talks with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and White House Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff in Washington on Thursday local time about the crisis in the Middle East, according to NBC News.
Lammy said in a statement that We are determined that Iran must never have a nuclear weapon... A window now exists within the next two weeks to achieve a diplomatic solution, according to Reuters.
However, on Friday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi reiterated that his country will not engage in any talks with the US as long as Israeli strikes continue, according to FT, citing Iranian state TV.
Regarding the US move, Wang Jin, an associate professor at the Institute of Middle Eastern Studies at Northwest University in Xi'an, believed that the two-week period for consideration and talks with the E3 countries seem to indicate that the US is stepping back from its previous threats to strike.
Citing sources, CBS reported on Wednesday that Trump approved the attack plans on Iran on Tuesday night but has not made a final decision on whether to strike the country and formally join Israel's air campaign. It added that Trump is willing to get the US involved if that's what it takes to knock out Fordow, a subterranean uranium enrichment facility in Iran.
According to media analysis, Iran still has the capability to attack US bases and personnel through armed groups it backs in the region, and could also hit back economically, as Tehran has threatened to attack commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, which would affect global trade and increase oil prices.
In the face of Iran's tough stance, the US does not want to show any signs of concession, but it also seeks to avoid being dragged into a quagmire of war, which makes Europe's coordination vital for Washington, Wang said.
On the other hand, according to a Reuters report on Thursday, the prospect of a US strike against Iran has exposed divisions in the coalition of supporters that brought Trump to power, with part of his base urging him not to get the country involved in a new Middle East war.
The US may participate in the conflict in some way, but it will also avoid getting involved in a war similar to those in Afghanistan and Iraq in the past, which left the US deeply embroiled in the region. Additionally, from a technical perspective, Washington also needs to thoroughly assess the manner and extent of its support for Israel, Liu said.
来源：Global Times
（本文观点仅为作者或被访者个人观点，不代表本研究机构立场）
