2015年10月23日，上外中东研究所智库理事会理事王京烈教授在China Daily发表英文评论文章“West Responsible for Creating Refugee Crisis”，全文如下：
West Responsible for Creating Refugee Crisis
According to the United Nations Refugee Agency, among the over 19.5 million refugees across the globe by the end of 2014, the majority were from the Middle East, where at least 8.9 million have fled their war-torn homelands.
By this month, about 4.1 million people from Syria had been registered and granted temporary protection mainly in neighboring countries such as Turkey, Lebanon and Iran, which respectively host at least 1.6 million, 1.1 million, and 980,000 refugees from the region. In contrast, only 500,000 (and counting) Middle East refugees have entered the European Union, but that has already made many member states balk.
It requires a considerable sum of money to accommodate and employ these refugees, let alone guarantee their children's education. The influx of a variety of Middle East refugees has also given rise to political disparities within the countries that plan to take them in, as well as latent risks with regard to local security and interracial exchanges.
The relationships between countries that receive, export, and transfer asylum-seekers also face strong headwinds as they fail to reach a consensus on how to tackle the ongoing migrant crisis. German Chancellor Angela Merkel has been losing support at home since she decided to take in more refugees.
True, some Middle East states in transformation have a lot to deal with at home - clashes between different classes, tribes, and races. But it is indisputable that the frequent military interventions led by the West, including the United States and Europe, have fueled the chaos that has forced people from their homes.
Given the significance of energy resources - especially in the future contest of national strength between emerging economies - the oil-rich Middle East nations do have an advantage because they can easily forge alliances to fight their rivals by manipulating the supply and price of petrol. That is exactly why the West has been bent on interfering with Middle East affairs.
On the one hand, it instigated the Arab Spring to promote democracy in the Arab World, mostly via cellphones and the Internet; on the other, US-led military actions have more than once overturned disobedient administrations, such as the ones ruled by Saddam Hussein in Iraq and Muammar Gadhafi in Libya.
These misdeeds eventually resulted in the latest refugee crisis, which to many Europeans was an unexpected outcome. In fact, the EU had started transforming the Middle East not long after the end of the Cold War in the early 1990s, for example, launching the Barcelona Process in 1995 and the 2008 Mediterranean Union of the Mediterranean Summit.
Likewise, Washington has been keen on promoting the Arab Spring in the Arab world, using its military might to overthrow regional nationalist regimes. In 2004 it floated the concept of a Greater Middle East, in which the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq served as integral parts.
To oust the legitimate Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, the US government has offered financial aid and weapons to the country's opposition forces, including, in 2014, over $500 million for training fighters. Unfortunately, crippling the Syrian government has not only led to endless turmoil and civil war in the country, but also exposed the local residents to an unchained bloodthirsty monster - the Islamic State group.
As Angus Deaton, an economist at Princeton University and the 2015 Nobel laureate in economics pointed out, Europe's immigration crisis is a result of unequal development, and might be alleviated in a short time if the political disparities and obstacles between the countries are resolved.
The refugee crisis will keep haunting all involved parties unless wars and poverty are eliminated in the war-stricken countries, which urgently need peace and stability to restore their economies and convince their nationals that seeking asylum elsewhere is no longer necessary. That being said, major Western powers have to stop intervening to their own liking in Middle East affairs before the regional situation spins out of control.
来源：中国日报网
附：全文中译文
西方推动颜色革命和军事打击才是难民危机祸根
据联合国难民署统计，到2014年底全球共有1950万难民。中东是近年产生难民最多的地区，已经多达890万人，截止到2015年10月初，仅叙利亚就因战乱产生了4185302名难民。中东的难民大多数都滞留在周边国家，目前土耳其、黎巴嫩、伊朗是滞留难民最多的国家，分别住有160万、115万和98.2万人。飘洋过海进入欧洲的只是其中的一部分，今年以来已有50多万难民进入欧盟国家。
汹涌而来的难民潮使欧盟国家措手不及，在政治、经济、社会安全、文化和国际关系等方面产生了一系列消极的影响：最直接、最明显的是经济上的影响，难民接纳国需要投入大量的资金，购置必要的物资解决难民的吃、穿、住、就医、就业以及儿童的教育问题；还产生了一些政治问题，影响接纳国国内政局和政策走向，对主流文化产生冲击；突然涌入的难民成分复杂包括各色人等，带来了社会治安和不同民族之间的矛盾冲突；从国际关系层面来看，难民问题不仅影响着欧洲难民接纳国家之间的关系，也影响着接纳国家与难民中转国家、难民输出国家之间的关系。欧盟国家疲于奔命应对难民问题，各国在是否接纳难民问题上也产生了严重分歧。
毫无疑问，处在社会转型期的中东国家需要面对自身的社会矛盾、宗教冲突、民族纠纷等复杂问题，但西方国家的频繁干预和军事打击则是引发战乱、造成难民潮的直接原因。
未来发展中世界各国面临着激烈的综合国力竞争，能源无疑是重要的制约因素之一。控制了盛产石油的中东就掌握了制约盟国和竞争对手的武器，通过控制石油供应、干预石油价格等手段来拉拢盟友或对付竞争对手，保持自身的强势地位。这是美国等西方国家不断干预中东事务的最主要原因，而干预手段既有“软的一手”——利用新媒体（手机+互联网），以推进民主为名煽动颜色革命；更有“硬的一手”——以军事打击颠覆、推翻“不听话的政权”。然而，令欧盟国家始料不及的是，干预他国的“苦果”将由它们自己吞下。
“支持和扩大民主化多年来一直是美国外交政策的核心。”在中东地区推行西方民主和价值观是美国等西方国家长期坚持的政策。冷战结束后不久就先后推出了一些“改造中东的计划”，例如欧盟国家在1995年和2008年先后提出了“巴塞罗那进程”和“地中海联盟计划”，美国在2004年出台所谓“大中东民主计划”，煽动中东国家进行颜色革命。
以美国为首的西方国家还动用军事力量直接打击中东民族主义政权。先是在2003年组成多国部队发动了伊拉克战争，推翻了萨达姆政权；2011年又由法国、英国打前阵和美国一起发动利比亚战争，推翻了卡扎菲政权。此后西方国家试图在叙利亚复制“利比亚模式”：支持叙利亚反对派推翻合法的巴沙尔政府，并向反对派提供了大量的资金和武器装备，仅2014年就拨款5亿美元用于培训反对派武装，从而使叙利亚国内局势急转直下，酿成持续的动乱和内战；当叙利亚政府被削弱之后，还造成恐怖主义泛滥，IS乘势崛起。
2015年诺贝尔奖获得者经济学家安格斯·迪顿在谈及欧洲难民危机时认为，难民问题是不平等发展的后果，消除政治分歧和障碍也能在短期内有所帮助。对难民的救助等应急措施固然重要，但如果不消除产生难民的根源——战乱与贫困，难民问题就将继续困扰着各国。
目前对于中东国家来说首先是要实现和平与稳定，并在此基础上抓住机遇获得发展、建设自己的家园，才能解决难民问题。没有和平与社会稳定恐怕也很难谈什么经济发展了。所以，大国也不要“任性”地根据自身利益与好恶随意干涉中东国家内政、制造动乱。这是必要的外部条件。
来源：中国日报网
