2015年12月19日，上海外国语大学中东研究所智库理事会理事王京烈教授在China Daily发表英文评论文章“Mideast Can Benefit from Initiative”，全文如下：
Mideast Can Benefit from Initiative
The Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road, together known as the Belt and Road Initiative, are aimed at building an inclusive community of shared interests and political mutual trust, and integrating developed and developing economies. They will not only help more Chinese enterprises to go global but also benefit many Middle East states.
But the implementation will not be easy in the face of the multiple security threats: violence, and political and social unrest that still straddle the routes and bridgeheads between Africa, Asia and Europe. Most regional players are undergoing (or may soon undergo) social transition, which, along with the escalating tensions in the neighborhood, add to the uncertainties. But the more daunting task is to eliminate terrorists and extremists, especially the bloodthirsty Islamic State jihadists.
The continuing clashes between Israelis and Palestinians, despite being relegated to the background owing to the IS' atrocities, remain a ticking time bomb in the region. So is the complex Kurdish problem that has haunted many Middle East countries, particularly Turkey whose ruling Justice and Development Party ended a two-and-a-half-year peace process in July by renewing its attack on the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party.
Despite the mess it is in, the oil-rich Middle East is home to almost 400 million people across 15 million square kilometers. And the regional states have great potential to deepen their economic cooperation with China, especially because their economies are complementary to China's.
In the pursuit of sustainable development, China is trying to replace some of its high energy-consuming low-end industries with environment-friendly and high-tech ones. This industrial shift by China offers Middle East countries many opportunities, which they should not miss if they want to upgrade their industrial structures for sustainable growth.
They could, for example, seek to expand their trade, and deepen their energy and financial cooperation with China, which can range from exploitation and refining of oil to increasing employment. China, on its part, needs to enhance its political and financial capabilities to not only realize the Belt and Road Initiative, but also improve its people's well-being.
China is still a developing country with a number of underdeveloped regions. Its per capita GDP was just over $7,500 last year, much less than in advanced economies and some major oil exporters in the Middle East. Going by the World Bank's poverty line of $1.9 a day, China still has about 200 million impoverished people, that is, one out of every six or seven Chinese lives in poverty.
Maximizing the economic synergies between China and the rest of the world, therefore, should be the priority of the Chinese government. The Beijing-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank with an initial authorized capital of $100 billion aims at financing infrastructure construction projects along the Belt and Road and can help boost the Middle East economies.
But the AIIB should be prepared to face mountainous problems because of the years, money and other resources the West has squandered waging fruitless wars in the Middle East since the end of the Cold War and turned the region into a tinderbox. The US alone has spent an estimated $1.7 trillion - more than Sudan's total GDP for the past decade - to continue its military interventions in the Middle East in just 15 years.
Such an astronomical amount could have been used to defuse tensions in the Middle East, boost regional growth and reduce poverty, instead of creating chaos. It is time the major powers stopped interfering and intervening in Middle East affairs and, instead, helped the regional players to restore peace and stability.
来源：China Daily
附：全文中译文
“一带一路”为中国与中东关系提供历史发展机遇期
两年前中国提出了构建“一带一路”的战略规划。它是中国经济进一步发展的客观需要，将为中国“西部大开发”提供强大的动力，改变西部地区社会经济发展相对落后的状况，将为中国企业走出去创造更多的机遇。“一带一路”是中国最宏大的向西开放国家战略，对于亚欧相关国家特别是中东国家是重要的历史发展机遇期。“一带一路”的战略目标是，“加强各国之间的合作，构建政治互信、经济融合、文化包容的利益共同体，携手共建人类命运共同体”，实际上是一个包容的“普惠战略”，是一个双赢、共赢的合作平台。“一带一路”不仅涵盖了众多的亚洲发展中国家，也有一部分欧洲发达国家，既有“南南合作”，也有“南北合作”，是“构建和谐世界”中国外交理念的具体实践。
然而，“一带一路”的实施也面临着诸多尤其是安全方面的挑战。中东地区位于亚、非、欧三大洲结合部，是“一带一路”上的重要区域。中东局势仍将动荡不安，其主要原因是：中东国家仍处在“社会转型”的发展过渡时期，转型时期本身就是多种矛盾集中爆发、社会动荡的时期，即便此次危机过后也还会出现新的危机；持续了5年之久的“中东政治危机”余波未尽，仍将继续作用于中东社会使局势动荡不安；以IS为代表的伊斯兰极端主义势力和恐怖主义乘势崛起，恶劣影响不断蔓延扩大，其组织短期内难以铲除；旷日持久的“巴以冲突”在过去几年曾被边缘化，但问题并未解决，将继续影响中东局势；曾经困扰多国的库尔德问题在新的国际环境下将重新凸现，在相关国家中对土耳其影响最大。
目前中东20多个国家人口近4亿，面积1500多万平方公里，是世界石油的最主要产区。中东是中国的周边延伸地区，中国与中东国家的合作有巨大的发展潜力和广阔前景。毫无疑问，在世界经济产业链上中国比中东国家要领先许多。经济发展水平和产业结构方面以及资源方面的差异，构成了中国与中东国家在经济合作中的互补性，属于互有需求型。当前，中国正在转变经济增长方式，以更加环保、节能、高科技含量的产业取代过去非环保、高能耗、科技含量低的产业。中东国家应该在创造更好的安全环境基础上，抓住共建“一带一路”的历史机遇期，加强与中国在经贸领域的合作，深化能源领域的合作，包括石油开采和提炼等上、下游领域，拓展在金融、科学技术领域的合作，使中东国家优化产业结构，提供更多的就业机会，提升自身整体经济实力并进一步推动社会经济的可持续发展。
应该指出的是，虽然中国已经是世界第二大经济体了，但并不富有，仍是一个发展中大国，有些地区尚未摆脱贫困。2014年中国的人均GDP约为7485美元，2013年在世界各国排名中位居第86位，不仅落后于发达国家，就是与中东石油富国相比也有很大差距。按照世界银行的标准，中国还有近2亿贫困人口，即每6-7个中国人中就有一个贫困者。中国政府当然不能忽视这一严峻现实。所以，中国应该更强大、更富有才能发挥更大的作用。中国正面临社会经济发展转型，如何将中国的机遇变成世界共享的福祉，这就需要中国与“一带一路”相关国家共同努力。
由中国牵头并有50多个亚欧国家参与的亚洲基础设施投资银行将筹资1000亿美元，支持“一带一路”沿线国家的基础设施建设。然而比起美国为首的西方国家的战争费用，这仍是“微不足道”的。冷战结束以来，美国为首的西方国家已经在中东地区发动了多次战争，但并未给中东带来福祉，而是制造了无休止的战乱与动荡。据美国的统计，21世纪以来美国仅在中东地区的战争费用约为1.7万亿美元（超过苏丹10年的GDP总量，2014年苏丹GDP为0.16万亿美元）。美国人民也不满意，“抱怨美国在中东没有解决什么问题，相反制造了更多的麻烦”。试想，如果“化剑为犁”，这些巨款不是用于战争，而是用于帮助中东国家发展经济，无疑将使中东少了战乱与动荡，减少贫困与犯罪，可推动社会发展与经济繁荣。
所以，大国不要“任性”地根据自身利益与好恶随意干涉中东国家内政、制造动乱。这是必要的外部条件。而对于中东国家来说，首先是要实现和平与稳定，并在此基础上抓住历史发展机遇，建设自己的家园。
来源：中国日报网
