2026年3月1日，上外中东研究所刘中民教授就哈梅内伊遇袭身亡接受Global Times采访，全文如下：
Khamenei's death to provoke fierce retaliation, potentially draw US into escalation it may struggle to control: Chinese expert
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in his office on Saturday morning during US-Israeli air strikes, media reported. Iran announced 40 days of mourning and vowed to revenge, warning the most devastating offensive operation in the history of Iran's armed forces is set to begin, according to Iranian media.
The death of Iran's supreme leader would be a profound shock to the Islamic Republic, but it is unlikely to bring about the collapse of the regime, as key institutions and succession mechanisms are already in place, a Chinese expert said. The greater risk, the expert warned, lies in what comes next. Such a strike could provoke fierce retaliation from Tehran against the US, potentially drawing Washington into an escalation it may struggle to control. The killing of another country's leader, the expert added, would deepen distrust and anxiety toward the US among other nations, further damaging its global standing.
Iran's Supreme National Security Council said Ayatollah Khamenei was killed early Saturday morning at his office while he was carrying out tasks, per BBC.
Using satellite imagery, BBC verify earlier confirmed significant damage to parts of the Leadership House compound, which is Khamenei's office in Tehran.
Two Iranian sources told Reuters that Khamenei met on Saturday with Shamkhani and Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani at a secure location shortly before the strikes started.
The confirmation came hours after Trump and two Israeli sources claimed that Khamenei was killed in US-Israeli attacks and his body has been found.
Trump announced on Truth Social on Sunday that Khamenei was killed after the US and Israel launched the predawn assault on the country.
Iran will observe 40 days of mourning and 7 days of holiday time to honor Khamenei.
The public mourning and holidays are to follow the government's official declaration of martyrdom for the ayatollah, semi-official Iranian state media outlet Nour News said in a post on Telegram.
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps has responded to Khamenei's death, saying we have lost a great leader and we mourn him, according to a statement carried by Fars news agency, Al Jazeera reported.
It added that the Iranian nation's hand of revenge…will not let them go.
The most devastating offensive operation in the history of Iran's armed forces is set to begin shortly, targeting the occupied territories and the US bases, Iranian TV Press TV reported following the news of the Iranian Supreme leader's death.
Khamenei took the helm of the Islamic republic in 1989 following the death of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the leader who had spearheaded the Islamic revolution a decade earlier.
While Khomeini was the ideological force behind the revolution that ended the rule of the Pahlavi monarchy, it was Khamenei who shaped the military and paramilitary apparatus that formed both Iran's defense against its enemies, and provide it with influence well beyond its borders, according to Al Jazeera. Khamenei remains partially paralyzed in his right hand due to a 1981 assassination attempt, according to Al Arabiya report.
Before becoming supreme leader, he had led Iran as president through a bloody war with Iraq in the 1980s. The grinding conflict, coupled with a sense of isolation among many Iranians as Western countries backed Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, deepened Khamenei's distrust of the West generally and the US, in particular, Al Jazeera quoted analysts say.
Khamenei's passing would represent a major shock to Iran. As the head of the country's leadership structure and a Supreme Leader who has held power for decades, he wields enormous influence within the political system. His death would deal a serious blow to Iran including the country's overall stability, Ding Long, a professor at the Middle East Studies Institute of Shanghai International Studies University, told the Global Times.
Ding also warned that Iran's response in terms of speed and intensity could be unprecedented as the loss of the Supreme Leader and multiple senior military officials could prompt a broad and far-reaching retaliation from Iran.
Khamenei's death could, to some extent, intensify the crisis facing Iran. However, unless the US and Israel launch a ground invasion, the likelihood of the collapse of the Iranian authority remains low. While Khamenei's death would deal a significant blow and create serious turbulence, many institutional functions and succession arrangements are already in place, suggesting that Iran may be psychologically and structurally prepared for such a scenario to a certain degree, Liu Zhongmin, a professor at the Middle East Studies Institute of Shanghai International Studies University, told the Global Times.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, the Head of the Judiciary, and one of the jurists of the Guardian Council will be responsible for the transitional period following the martyrdom of that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, according to Iran's Fars News.
US media the Politico reported that America's ability to shape Iran's political future could prove limited. Washington has not had diplomatic relations with Iran since 1980. Even as Trump approved militant operations to remove two foreign heads of state in as many months — the first being the seizure of former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro — he has been reluctant to send US ground forces to occupy or carry out lengthy operations inside the targeted countries.
In the run-up to the US and Israeli attacks on Saturday, the US Central Intelligence Agency assessed that even if Khamenei was killed in the operation, he could be replaced by hardline figures from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), two sources briefed on the intelligence said, per Reuters.
The agency's assessments, which were produced over the past two weeks, looked broadly at what could occur in Iran following a US intervention and the extent to which a military operation could trigger regime change in the Islamic Republic -- now a pronounced objective for Washington.
The White House earlier posted photos on X showing the US president overseeing the military operations in Iran. One of the photos shows Vice President JD Vance in the Situation Room of the White House.
War launched by US and Israel on Iran has quickly escalated, prompting anxiety and concern in whole region. In retaliation, several countries that host American military bases in the region including the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Bahrain say they have been attacked, NBC reported.
If Iran's retaliation inflicts heavier damage on the US and Israel and triggers further escalation, this would also pose a significant test for Washington — particularly for the Trump administration, said Liu.
Strategically, Trump may seek to deliver maximum pressure and damage against Iran while avoiding entanglement in a prolonged conflict or ground war, attempting instead to manage the confrontation through what could be described as controlled escalation. However, whether the US can truly keep the pace and scope of escalation under control remains highly uncertain, Liu noted.
来源：Global Times
（本文观点仅为作者或被访者个人观点，不代表本研究机构立场）
