2021年9月4日，上外中东研究所范鸿达教授在伊朗《德黑兰时报》发表评论文章“Is the Vienna JCPOA negotiation worth going on?”（见Tehran Times2021年9月4日第5版），全文如下：
Is the Vienna JCPOA negotiation worth going on?
On April 6, 2021, the relevant parties of the “Joint Comprehensive Action Plan” (JCPOA) began talks in Vienna on reviving the JCPOA. During Rouhani's presidency, six rounds of such talks were held, but no final solution was reached. Can and when will the seventh round of talks be held after Iran's new President Ebrahim Raisi takes office? This issue has attracted more attention from the international community.
In a TV interview on August 31, Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian said the ongoing talks on reviving JCPOA must lead to concrete results for the Iranian nation. “The Islamic Republic welcomes whatever talks that are governed by logic.”
Since the Biden administration came to power, it has also expressed hope to return to JCPOA. Until August 24, the U.S. special envoy for Iran, Robert Malley, said in an interview that for the United States and Iran to return to JCPOA “Washington is prepared to make 'difficult compromises'”.
The Raisi administration’s attitude towards the JCPOA negotiations in Vienna is no different from the previous one. That is, the effective lifting of sanctions on Iran by the United States and the joint compliance of the JCPOA by all parties are the basis for any agreement to be negotiated. Iran also believes that the Vienna JCPOA negotiations cannot involve Iran’s missile and regional policy issues.
The position of the United States is that some sanctions that do not comply with the JCPOA can be lifted. Of course, Iran will also reverse its nuclear steps that do not comply with the JCPOA. The current focus of the dispute between the United States and Iran is whether the United States can lift all relevant sanctions as Iran wishes, and whether Iran’s missile and regional policy issues can be included in the Vienna negotiations.
Now the United States wants to return to JCPOA as soon as possible than Iran. The Trump administration's “extreme pressure” on Iran indeed had impact on Iran. Iran, which was under pressure for a period of time, was more eager to carry out the Vienna negotiations to return to the JCPOA.
However, several rounds of negotiations have been inconclusive. Iran, which has constantly explored the strategy of countering the “extreme pressure” of the United States, seems to have a much lower desire to continue negotiations than before. The U.S. failure in Afghanistan further eased the pressure on Iran.
In accordance with the relevant provisions of the JCPOA, Iran is rapidly advancing its nuclear development under the premise of maintaining communication with the International Atomic Energy Agency. Moreover, in recent years, Iran’s diplomacy has shown a certain trend toward the east. President Raisi and Foreign Minister Amirabdollahian have repeatedly stated that developing relations with neighboring countries and Asian countries is the priority of the new Iranian administration. In addition, the relationship between Iran and the United States' strategic rivals China and Russia is also deepening.
These new developments make the United States and its partners in Europe and other places disturbed and hope to resolve the issue of returning to JCPOA as soon as possible. They believe that this can eliminate the alleged challenges brought about by Iran's nuclear development, and it can also establish and maintain a good relationship with Iran.
On the other hand, although the urgency of Iran’s return to the JCPOA negotiations has decreased, Tehran still hopes to resolve this issue as soon as possible, because only in this way can the U.S. bilateral sanctions that Iran is suffering be alleviated and Iran can usher in a better development.
However, there is still a great distance between hope and reality. Because the United States has imposed sanctions on Iran for many reasons, it is not a simple executive order that can be lifted quickly. Moreover, the United States has strong anti-Iran and anti-JCPOA forces. The internal politics of the United States has determined that the sanctions against Iran are difficult to lift in a short period of time, which means that Washington cannot meet Iran's negotiation requirements for the time being.
It is also very difficult for Iran to agree to include missile and regional policy issues in the Vienna negotiations. Iran’s new administration has made this clear. However, these two issues are precisely what the United States and its allies are very concerned about. Obviously enough time is needed to deal with the relationship between JCPOA negotiations and regional issues. Moreover, there are also strong anti-American and anti-JCPOA opinion in Iran. Iran’s internal politics has also determined that it is difficult to compromise in the struggle against the United States.
Nevertheless, I think the negotiations in Vienna on reviving JCPOA should continue. Generally speaking, negotiation is an effective means to contain the further intensification of conflicts, and it is also a process of solving problems. By continuing the Vienna negotiations, at least the parties involved in the JCPOA can have a deeper understanding of each other, while also allowing time for the parties, especially the United States and Iran, to resolve their internal related issues.
As long as the parties have the same ultimate goal, no matter how difficult the negotiation is, it is worth continuing.
来源：Tehran Times
（本文观点仅为作者或被访者个人观点，不代表本研究机构立场）
