2024年5月20日，上外中东研究所范鸿达教授就伊朗总统遇难接受China Daily采访，主要内容如下：

Will crash trigger a crisis in Iran?

Editor's Note: Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian were declared deceased on Monday following a helicopter incident on Sunday. Below are excerpts of views shared by Chinese experts on this tragic incident.

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Chance of 'assassination' slim

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian were confirmed dead on Monday, a day after a helicopter carrying them went missing amid bad weather in the East Azerbaijan province on Sunday.

Although conspiracy theories are floating claiming he could be assassinated, available evidence suggests this was an accident; from a domestic and international perspective, there is not sufficient motive to assassinate Raisi.

Iranian media reports said the helicopter carrying Raisi, Abdollahian and other officials was a Bell 212 purchased from Canada during former president Mohammad Khatami's term (1997-2005). Even if the helicopter was newly manufactured at the time of purchase, it is no longer modern. And its maintenance is not easy for Iran, given the sanctions.

Even the Iranian government is not linking the crash to hostile forces at home or abroad.

Therefore, Raisi's unfortunate and untimely death will not have a major impact on the situation in the Middle East. This is just an internal political issue in Iran, because the supreme leader has a predominant role in policy formulation.

And given Iran's current domestic politics, the next president will also come from the conservative side. So Iran's government will maintain its national policy in the near future.

Fan Hongda is a professor at the Middle East Studies Institute, Shanghai International Studies University.

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来源：China Daily

（本文观点仅为作者或被访者个人观点，不代表本研究机构立场）