2024年6月20日，上外中东研究所刘中民教授就以色列与黎巴嫩真主党冲突升级接受Global Times采访，全文如下：

Global worries grow over wider regional war amid Israel-Lebanon tension

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said on Wednesday that plans for an attack in southern Lebanon had been approved and steps had been taken to accelerate readiness of troops in the field.

Since the onset of the Gaza conflict on October 7, Israel and Hezbollah militants have been locked in ongoing hostilities, with the rhetoric intensifying recently. Last week, Hezbollah launched rockets and drones at Israeli military sites following an Israeli strike that killed its most senior commander. The group has also hinted at potential attacks on Israel's third-largest city - Haifa, according to media reports.

On Tuesday, Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz issued a warning on X, stating, We are very close to the moment of decision to change the rules against Hezbollah and Lebanon. In an all-out war, Hezbollah will be destroyed, and Lebanon will be severely hit.

From a historical perspective, there has long been a possibility of escalation of conflict between Israel and Hezbollah as there is a deep-seated enmity between the two sides and there have been numerous clashes over the years, Liu Zhongmin, a professor at the Middle East Studies Institute of Shanghai International Studies University, told the Global Times on Wednesday.

It remains to be seen whether the conflict between the two sides will escalate into a sustained conflict similar to that in Gaza, said Liu.

The latest round of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has spilled over in several spots, including forces like the Houthi militants targeting Israel and the US on the Red Sea, and Iraqi militant groups launching drones and rockets. And Hezbollah, with support from Iran, remains a significant member of the anti-Israel forces, analysts said.

With Israel's operations in southern Gaza potentially nearing an end amid substantial international pressure, there is a likelihood that Israel may shift its focus northward to target Hezbollah, said Liu.

Escalation of the Israel-Lebanon conflict would make the surrounding situation increasingly tense, which would also bring more domestic and international pressure for Israel, said Liu.

The international community is also paying close attention to the situation in the Middle East and there are concerns about a wider regional war. Many observers called for an immediate ceasefire in the Gaza Strip to stop the situation from deteriorating.

来源：Global Times

（本文观点仅为作者或被访者个人观点，不代表本研究机构立场）