2024年8月1日，上外中东研究所范鸿达教授在China Daily发表评论文章“Will Hamas retaliate after Haniyeh assassination?”，全文如下：
Will Hamas retaliate after Haniyeh assassination?
Since the Israeli-Palestinian conflict broke out on Oct 7 last year, most of Hamas’ military forces have been decimated, causing its strength and political influence to shrink sharply. While the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh is significant, its impact on Palestinian internal politics is likely to be limited.
So far, no force has claimed responsibility for the assassination. Since Israel has always insisted on destroying or physically eliminating the main leaders of the hostile forces and their followers, the country is widely suspected to be a behind-the-scenes supporter of a series of actions. Of course, based on past experience, Israel is unlikely to announce that it was responsible. It is also possible that some other organizations may claim responsibility for the attack.
Palestinian resistance organizations have been so severely crushed in recent months that they do not have the ability or willingness to retaliate against Israel on a large scale.
It is widely known that Fatah has no military power in the West Bank. After more than half a year of military operations, Israel has destroyed most of Hamas’ military capabilities in Gaza. Overall, Palestine’s ability to retaliate against foreign forces is negligible.
A day before the attack on Haniyeh, Israel had claimed to have successfully killed senior Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Lebanon. Some reports say he was the second-in-command of Hezbollah, its most senior military commander and an adviser to its leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah. Fuad Shukr was responsible for planning and commanding wartime operations.
As such, it can be said that Israel has shifted its strategic focus from Gaza to southern Lebanon. It has even notified various diplomatic missions in Beirut to be careful and evacuate. Israel seems to have well planned its attack on the Hezbollah, and according to Israeli media this plan has the backing of the US government. Israel’s strategy of strengthening its attack on Lebanon, especially Hezbollah, will not change much in the near future.
Iran has long struggled with a challenging domestic security environment, and the assassination of Haniyeh is expected to prompt heightened security measures, particularly in Tehran. This is not the first time that an assassination has occurred in Iran. It is generally believed that there are a large number of spies in Iran, especially Israeli spies which Iran is unable to contain. This is a reason why so many important figures in Iran have been systematically eliminated one after another.
The assassination of Haniyeh will not have a major impact on the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, because the two parts cannot communicate directly anyway.
Palestine has very deep-rooted internal conflicts that cannot be resolved in a short time. There are many people and factions with varying opinions on Hamas. In fact, not just Israel, many factions in Palestine, too, are happy to see a weakened Hamas.
So far, there is a huge gap between the opinions of Hamas and Fatah. If Hamas cannot play a bigger role now, it will obviously benefit factions, including Fatah, and their peace talks with Israel.
China needs to strongly condemn Haniyeh’s assassination because it is a terrorist action.
The Palestinian-Israeli conflict, notably the Palestinian predicament, is an exceedingly intricate issue. It is difficult to achieve results if it is simplified too much. The essence and connotation of the Palestinian issue have undergone a series of changes compared to decades ago. Even the land of Palestine has changed a lot. Hence, the Palestinian issue necessitates examination from both a historical and a contemporary standpoint. Any plan that disregards the present circumstances is destined to falter.
来源：China Daily
（本文观点仅为作者或被访者个人观点，不代表本研究机构立场）
