2024年10月7日，上外中东研究所刘中民教授就巴以冲突一周年接受Global Times采访，全文如下：
One year into Gaza conflict, the international community is asking, when will this war end?
As the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has stretched on for a year, the conflict has spread further in the Middle East to countries including Lebanon, Yemen, Iran and Syria, with tens of thousands of people killed. The international community has tried to prevent the escalation of the conflict but to no avail, and now worries are growing over a full-scale war in the Middle East, analysts said.
The worsening situation in the region has been one of the hottest topics in the UN in the past one year. The General Debate of the 79th session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) concluded on September 30, with UNGA President Philemon Yang calling on Israel, Hamas and Hezbollah to urgently conclude a ceasefire.
The UN Security Council (UNSC) has also held many meetings since the outbreak of the conflict last year, but failed to stop the crisis from escalating, and observers said the key reason is that the major powers that are capable of stopping the war cannot reach consensus, as the US has used its veto power to stand against other members from adopting a resolution of immediate and sustainable cease-fire, and its one-sided support to Israel has allowed the later to continue and expand its operations in the region and seriously undermine the UN mechanism to safeguard peace.
On Monday, the Israeli military announced that it conducted strikes on Hamas targets across the Gaza Strip to mark the anniversary of the October 7 attacks. Meanwhile, southern Beirut experienced significant explosions for another night as Israeli forces continued their bombardment of the Lebanese capital. Additionally, at least 10 individuals were injured in Haifa, Israel, due to a rocket attack from Hezbollah, Al Jazeera reported.
The conflicts are causing heavy casualties almost every day. According to data released by the Gaza Ministry of Health on Sunday, in past 24 hours, the Israeli military operation has caused 45 deaths. Since October 7, 2023, over 40,000 people have been killed.
Lebanese people are now also becoming the victims of the war. According to the International Organization for Migration under the UN, in September 2024, large-scale cross-border attacks escalated in Lebanon, causing over 1,000 deaths and 6,352 injuries in less than two weeks. This brings the total to more than 1,800 killed and 9,100 injured since October 2023. The casualties include civilians, healthcare workers and humanitarian staff.
Israel's military operations have also triggered responses from other countries. Iran launched approximately 180 missiles at Israeli targets on October 1, claiming it was in response to Israel's alleged assassinations of several high-profile figures, including Hamas and Hezbollah leaders, and a senior Iranian military commander. Israel also claimed that it will strike back with Iran said it will return with harsh and destructive response if Israel takes any further action to attack Iran.
The possibility of a full-scale war in the Middle East exists, but the chances have not dramatically increased, as countries involved are all unwilling to see the situation spiral out of control, and they have taken actions from their own interests and perspectives to maintain stability and prevent escalation, Gong Xiaosheng, a former special envoy of the Chinese government on Middle East issue, told the media in a recent interview. For regional countries like Lebanon, Syria, and Egypt, there is a strong reluctance to get involved in the conflict; and for Israel, the sooner it can resolve this conflict, the better it will be for Israel's national interests and its people.
It is hard to say whether Israel will further escalate the war on a larger scale, Gong said, as such actions do not align with Israel's interests and would exceed its military capabilities. Especially with the US in the midst of presidential election, going too far on this issue would not be in line with American interests either.
The Israeli-Palestinian negotiations are currently at a stalemate, and there is very little room for maneuvering based on the points of contention between the two sides. Ultimately, Israel is not likely to compromise on the condition of releasing all hostages, but the methods and timing of their release can be negotiated, Gong suggested.
Wang Jin, an associate professor at the Institute of Middle Eastern Studies at Northwest University in Xi'an, told the Global Times the conflicts in the region could stretch further, because there is no clear, feasible and reliable peaceful solution at this moment. Maybe Israel can maintain its military advantages and strike its neighbors as frequent as it wants given the support from the US, but a completely secure and safe environment requires something else, Wang said.
Escalation hard to prevent
In the past one year, members of the international community, including China, have paid a lot of efforts for peace. Following the historic handshake between Saudi Arabia and Iran in Beijing in 2023, another epoch-making event, the signing of the Beijing Declaration by 14 Palestinian factions on ending division and strengthening unity, seems to affirm China's role as a peacemaker. Experts said this will contribute to not only the internal peace of Palestine but also the future peaceful solution of the Palestine-Israel issue.
The US has also tried to mediate the conflict, but it prefers to do so through the mechanism dominated by itself, and this approach has failed to win trust from groups like Hamas and Hezbollah, as the US is not a fair mediator, experts said.
Although regional countries and other members of the UNGA and UNSC have called for peace and concrete efforts in humanitarian aids and conflict mediation, the problematic role played by Washington has undermined these efforts, said Liu Zhongmin, a professor at the Middle East Studies Institute of Shanghai International Studies University.
According to Reuters, the US on February 20 again vetoed a draft UNSC resolution, blocking a demand for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire as it instead pushes the 15-member body to call for a temporary ceasefire linked to the release of hostages held by Hamas.
Thirteen council members voted in favor of the Algerian-drafted text, while Britain abstained. This was the third US veto of a draft resolution since the start of the latest round of Palestine-Israel conflict. Washington also used its veto to block an amendment to draft resolution in December.
Li Zhenjie, an associate research fellow at the Institute for studies on the Mediterranean Rim at Zhejiang International Studies University, told the Global Times that now the crisis is not only in the Gaza Strip, but has spread into multiple eyes of storm in Israel-Lebanon border areas, the Red Sea, Iran and Syria. This has increased the difficulty of conflict mediation.
The US decision to veto has paralyzed the UN's function to stop the conflict, and there is no mechanism that can effectively prevent Washington from abusing its power, Li noted.
The 'sunk cost' of immediately stopping the war is becoming greater day after day for Israel. The Israeli government knows that if the situation goes out of control, the US will be forced to intervene, Li said. Therefore, for the Israeli government, there is nothing to be worried about, and it's already immune to criticism and protests worldwide against it.
The current situation proves that the US-dominated rule-based international order actually played by no rules but is only based on the interests of US hegemony, experts said.
来源：Global Times
（本文观点仅为作者或被访者个人观点，不代表本研究机构立场）
